Increased global oil supply may overtake demand in 2018 - IEA


"The rebalancing of the oil market has likely been achieved, six months sooner than we had expected", the bank's analysts said in a report.

"We believe the sector has transitioned from "sell the rally" to "buy the dip" given the combination of reasonable E&P valuations, institutions being underweight energy, and our expectations of oil inventory draws continuing to support oil prices in 2018 even assuming robust USA oil production growth", the analysts said in a recent research report.

Oil prices ticked up slightly Tuesday morning, even as they remained under pressure amid fresh signs that USA crude production could cause global supply to outpace demand this year.

Barkindo said: "I have heard and received assurances both from Alexander Novak and President Putin that they will remain committed to the OPEC, non-OPEC collaboration and the Declaration of Cooperation". "Oil markets attempted a half-hearted recovery overnight on little more than an equity market correlated bounce", said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.60 a barrel at 0759 GMT.

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The reasons tend to be different for most physical grades but overall the trend paints a bearish picture. "In our view, the market has been overly focused on the race toward rebalance without realizing that transient pockets of oversupply have been emerging in the physical market".

In the interim, in the USA, crude reserves likely moved by 3 MMbbl a week ago, as indicated by a Bloomberg review.

In just three months to November, crude output in the United States increased by a colossal 846,000 barrels per day, "and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia", the agency said. Last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that USA crude oil production reached 10.3 million barrels per day, the highest level in the country's history and the first record since 1970.

The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that crude output from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - primarily driven by US shale production - should surpass global demand in 2018 and weigh on oil prices. Prices for barrels of crude from the North Sea, Russia, the United States and Middle East have dropped to multi-month lows.

A similar pattern can be observed in the Russian Urals market, one of the biggest by volume in Europe.

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Analysts noted that oil consumption remains robust.

With the gradual stabilization of stock exchanges, the attention of traders shifts to the fundamental indicators of the oil market, which are supply and demand.

A decline in physical crude values generally means better margins for refiners.

Nigeria will refocus on oil projects that deliver higher returns to keep production within the limits set by OPEC, oil minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said late Tuesday.

The refined product markets were expected to tighten significantly in March and April due to a busy schedule for seasonal refinery maintenance.

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