July exports accelerate despite Trump's tariff hike


"Looking forward. the outlook for China's exports is grim in view of the escalating trade war", said Chang Shu and Fielding Chen of Bloomberg Economics.

China has vowed to retaliate with equivalent tariffs against any USA action.

Last week, China proposed additional tariffs on another US$60 billion of U.S. goods after Trump raised planned tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent. The list includes a lot of industrial and machinery products. That leaves only about $20 billion for penalty tariffs after increases that have already been imposed or threatened on USA goods are counted.

Last year's imports from the United States totaled about $130 billion.

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The Trump administration will encourage China to buy more US LNG, in part to reduce the trade imbalance that is at the heart of the Sino-US conflict. Thus, the measure of imposing supplementary tariffs would only contribute to massive escalation in cost of USA produced drugs. It was necessary to take this action "because the USA side has repeatedly escalated the situation despite the interest of both enterprises and consumers".

China today does not directly import LNG from the US. Clearly, there exists substantial reliance between the two biggest economies of the world for meeting their respective domestic pharmaceutical needs. Meanwhile, China shipped US$1.46 billion worth of condoms to the U.S. in 2017. It is the largest export destination for the Indian pharmaceutical market accounting for 12.5% share in case of bulk drugs and 39.8% share in India's exports of formulations.

So far, China has now either imposed or proposed tariffs on US$110 billion of United States goods, representing the vast majority of its annual imports of American products. This move of India is going to trouble China.

"Trump told the executives that Chinese President Xi Jinping's "One Belt One Road Initiative, ' China's economic plan that has the potential to disrupt trade worldwide, was 'insulting" and that he didn't want it, according to a person in the room".

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China's import figures are closely watched by the industry to determine whether and when Chinese crushers will end a virtual boycott of United States soybeans, a move that could put upward pressure on futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Administration officials believe that the US$505b Americans spend on Chinese products each year gives them leverage over China. "If the 25 percent tariff is implemented, I'd expect exports to China to decrease even further". That's a 24 percent drop from the same period in 2017, due to the new purity standards. The policy reflects CFDA'S intent to promote early launch of generic drugs to improve their accessibility.

Trump has claimed in recent tweets that "tariffs are working far better than anyone ever anticipated", linking them to a downturn that has shaved almost a quarter from the value of Chinese stocks since late January. Thus, the removal of tariff alone might not have remarkable impacts on exports; nevertheless the tariff reduction accompanied by implementation of regulatory reforms might augment Indian pharma exports to China in the future.

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